Statistics are Great!

"Cardiff City have only dropped 10 points at home all season" - BBC 12/03/2013

"Cardiff City have dropped 7 points from the last 12 available at home" - TDA 12/03/2013

"Cardiff City have only conceded 12 goals at home all season" - BBC 12/03/2013

"Cardiff City have scored 7 goals and conceded 7 in their last 7 home games" - TDA 12/03/2013

Which statements provided a more accurate assessment of Cardiff City's present form?

Discuss........

Depends on the context. The BBC statements describe our season's form, which could be construed as 'present form' in the context of, say, the last 20 seasons.

Your first statement covers the last 4 home games. Double that to the last 8 home games, and presumably it becomes a less damning. Which more accurately describes current form? Or more precisely, how many games count as current form?

Statistics is all about presentation, moulding them to fit your argument. They can be spun to tell almost any story if you work hard enough. Stats should always be treated with great suspicion!

TDA wrote:"Cardiff City have only dropped 10 points at home all season" - BBC 12/03/2013

"Cardiff City have dropped 7 points from the last 12 available at home" - TDA 12/03/2013

"Cardiff City have only conceded 12 goals at home all season" - BBC 12/03/2013

"Cardiff City have scored 7 goals and conceded 7 in their last 7 home games" - TDA 12/03/2013

Which statements provided a more accurate assessment of Cardiff City's present form?

Discuss........

A brilliant demonstration of how statistics can be used to show bias in either direction.

The Tonker wrote:Depends on the context. The BBC statements describe our season's form, which could be construed as 'present form' in the context of, say, the last 20 seasons.

Your first statement covers the last 4 home games. Double that to the last 8 home games, and presumably it becomes a less damning. Which more accurately describes current form? Or more precisely, how many games count as current form?

Statistics is all about presentation, moulding them to fit your argument. They can be spun to tell almost any story if you work hard enough. Stats should always be treated with great suspicion!

Exactly, but, to me, the only stats that are of any relevance in football are those reflecting the most recent peformances, particularly where a clear trend (in this case towards inertia / downward spiral) can be seen......

Colonel Cardiffi wrote:

TDA wrote:"Cardiff City have only dropped 10 points at home all season" - BBC 12/03/2013

"Cardiff City have dropped 7 points from the last 12 available at home" - TDA 12/03/2013

"Cardiff City have only conceded 12 goals at home all season" - BBC 12/03/2013

"Cardiff City have scored 7 goals and conceded 7 in their last 7 home games" - TDA 12/03/2013

Which statements provided a more accurate assessment of Cardiff City's present form?

Discuss........

A brilliant demonstration of how statistics can be used to show bias in either direction.

Aw, shucks, thanks.........

Good work, have some flair.

the bbc's use of statistics refers to the season to date, we are interested in the most recent statistics as they are the most accurate guide to our current form

davewebber65 wrote:the bbc's use of statistics refers to the season to date, we are interested in the most recent statistics as they are the most accurate guide to our current form

Lazy journalism imo, as it hardly paints an accurate picture of current form going into a game.....

But how many games do you need consider for determine current form? The last 4? Not sure that is enough to paint a fair picture.

If you look at the last 10, we have only lost twice, only one other team in the league has done better than that, Bolton.

All the rest of the teams in the top 6 have lost at least twice as well, so our form is not significantly worse than them.

Just got to keep plugging away and getting those vital points.

Having huds back will help massively, if only in confidence.

I only read so much into statistics. There are just far too many variables in football to factor in.

For example, when Bent scored via a beach ball against Liverpool that was a variable that came into play on the day that no one anticipated. There are so many things that mean the form book can be ripped to shreds.

I know some fans think 'we'll lose at home tonight because we've played poorly' but I never think that. I genuinely only ever feel we'll lose if its down to gut feeling and instinct. I've been right on the odd occasion with the Peterborough game and I have been wrong many times as well.

What happens tonight if we are 2-1 up with a minute to go and Leicester go through on goal, their player rounds the keeper yet somehow a fan manages to get on the pitch and kick the ball away before they can score?

Is the game replayed? Is a goal given if it was on target? Is it not a goal? When the Bent incident took place they said a goal should not have been given. What is the difference with a fan interfering with play?

There is more hot air in the average fan than a beach ball.......

TDA wrote:"Cardiff City have only dropped 12 points at home all season" - BBC 12/03/2013

"Cardiff City have dropped 9 points from the last 15 available at home" - TDA 12/03/2013

"Cardiff City have only conceded 13 goals at home all season" - BBC 12/03/2013

"Cardiff City have scored 8 goals and conceded 8 in their last 8 home games" - TDA 12/03/2013

Doesn't look any better at the end of the day than at the beginning.........