17 games to go

How many points do we need for automatic promotion? I say 10 wins or 8 wins and 6 draws. Ridiculously it sounds like a tough ask!

Last season after 29 games, the leaders (West Ham) had 7 points fewer than we currently have. Southampton (who finished 2nd) were in 2nd place with 11 points fewer than our current total.

Yes, it's a tough ask, but then back in August the idea of being 10 points clear at the beginning of February would have been thought an impossible task. This Cardiff City can do tough asks.

Also, 9 of the 17 remaining games are at home, where we have only conceded 8 goals all season, four fewer than the next meanest (Leicester).

I think 87 points will see us finish comfortably in the top two. Leicester and Hull would both need to pick up an average of 2 points a game to deny us automatic promotion with that total. I really can't see that happening.
So 8 wins and a draw will give us the required points we need.
However the way City are performing at the moment ther final points tally will be a lot more than this. The Times did a prediction of the final table five weeks ago and they reckoned we will be champions with 99 points. I think they'll be pretty close to the mark.

If we win every one if our home games, importantly including a win against Leicester, that would give us 90 points and 9 times out of 10 win us the league before we even consider knocking points here and there away as well.

That's probably unrealistic though, especially with some tricky games at home. It's better to see that our much improved away form can probably deliver results against the weaker sides that would make up for a dip at home. Keep aiming for 2 points a match average and we have 97 points - that's no doubt the title.

I would go for.

7-8 wins for a auto spot and 8 wins and a few draws for the championship

Some great stats and comparisons lads. We should be feeling just fine but why can't I relax?

A great little blog post that I read from newsnow helps explain that the more we win, the harder it gets for the chasing pack to catch us. The points needed a game ratio rises rather sharply and quickly for them. He explains it excellently:

We’ve got a great chance, but how many points do we need from our last seventeen matches to book a top two place? People seem to have homed in on eighty six points as being the number that would get us up – if that is the case, then we are now in a position whereby we could lose more matches than we win from here on in and still reach that figure. However, I’m not so sure that would be enough as things stand and my target would be ninety, so nine more wins would get us there.

It’s interesting to note what the maximum number of points our rivals could reach is – Leicester and Hull can get to a hundred and four, Watford one hundred, Palace ninety nine and Middlesbrough ninety eight. Of the teams outside the top six, only Burnley, Brighton, Derby, Leeds and Blackburn can get beyond ninety points by winning all of their remaining matches, but all of them, bar Brighton, cannot afford to lose a single match if they are to reach that total.

So, if we can get those twenty seven points from our seventeen remaining matches, the two sides best placed to overhaul us (Leicester and Hull) would see their current margin for error in terms of the number of points they can drop more than halved if they were to draw just four games. It should also be noted that the top six sides have at least three matches left against sides currently occupying the automatic promotion or Play Off places, so they are all going to be taking points off each other.

http://mauveandyellowarmy.net/maybe-there-is-a-god/

Rhys wrote:A great little blog post that I read from newsnow helps explain that the more we win, the harder it gets for the chasing pack to catch us. The points needed a game ratio rises rather sharply and quickly for them. He explains it excellently:

We’ve got a great chance, but how many points do we need from our last seventeen matches to book a top two place? People seem to have homed in on eighty six points as being the number that would get us up – if that is the case, then we are now in a position whereby we could lose more matches than we win from here on in and still reach that figure. However, I’m not so sure that would be enough as things stand and my target would be ninety, so nine more wins would get us there.

It’s interesting to note what the maximum number of points our rivals could reach is – Leicester and Hull can get to a hundred and four, Watford one hundred, Palace ninety nine and Middlesbrough ninety eight. Of the teams outside the top six, only Burnley, Brighton, Derby, Leeds and Blackburn can get beyond ninety points by winning all of their remaining matches, but all of them, bar Brighton, cannot afford to lose a single match if they are to reach that total.

So, if we can get those twenty seven points from our seventeen remaining matches, the two sides best placed to overhaul us (Leicester and Hull) would see their current margin for error in terms of the number of points they can drop more than halved if they were to draw just four games. It should also be noted that the top six sides have at least three matches left against sides currently occupying the automatic promotion or Play Off places, so they are all going to be taking points off each other.

http://mauveandyellowarmy.net/maybe-there-is-a-god/

One of the most sensible contributors to the other boards, TOBW's blog is always a good and informative read