Interesting run in stats

[Mr Cholmondley-WarnerAcademy Player]

After today's matches our new magic number - the number of points we need to get to be mathematically certain of promotion is now 97.

This would presuppose that both Hull and Watford win all their remaining matches and draw the game between themselves.

Clearly this is unlikely in the extreme but let's just say they achieve this feat, this would mean we would need 30 points from the remaining 14 games, a points per game ratio of 2.14. Our current ratio, with 67 points from 32 games is 2.09.

If we maintain our current season form we would earn 29.31 points from our remaining games,which means that at this point of the season even perfection from BOTH Hull and Watford will not be enough to overtake us, provided we simply maintain our average form for the season.

Lets examine this further. As we are leading the championship it would seem a reasonable assumption that a points per game ratio of 2.1 over a period as long as 12 games would be a "realistic maximum". For both Hull and Watford this would mean them finishing on 87 points.

So assuming they BOTH achieve this championship leader points per game ratio we would need 21 points from our remaining 14 games to beat them, or simply 1.5 points over game. So mid table Championship form from us for our last 14 games would see us right even if Hull and Watford achieved the standard we have achieved this season.

A more likely scenario is that either Watford or Hull will finish the season at, or around,the points per game ratio they have achieved so far.

This would be 1.82 points per game meaning that they would finish on 83.88 points, so then 84 points becomes enough for us - just 17 points from our remaining 14 games, a measly 1.21 points per game - form that if played out over the season would have seen us finish 18th last season!!!

So, as the number of games continues to run down the "value" of our lead, even when it remains the same in number of points, increases exponentially, as the ability of our opponents to catch us erodes.

I must confess I was amazed how close we almost certainly are to reaching promotion - by maintaining our current form we will achieve 84 points in 8 games time, which would be the away game at Watford.

We won't be mathematically up by that point, however in reality we could lose our remaining 6 games and still finish in the top 2- quite remarkable really.

(I am posting this on CCMB as well as an experiment to demonstrate the difference in positive thinking from the posters on each board - I think the replies to this will be telling)

[G-sterClub Legend]

Interesting stuff.

I've been convinced for a while that nothing will prevent City getting automatic promotion, despite Tuesday's defeat.

[Toast BoyClub Legend]

I'll start off by saying my head hurts but try to formulate a reply anyway.

I think the 'magic number' thing is interesting. Not because it is very realistic as a target but for the opposite. The more realistic the magic number becomes as points rack up and games left reduce the more it becomes obvious how close to the more realistic target you are.

I must say my own way of thinking has been to look at the 2 points a game average. This is the figure which over a course of a season will ALWAYS historically gain automatic promotion. We are the only team to have reached and maintained that. It seems to me unlikely that over a still relatively significant 12 game period that Watford and Hull (or any other team) will manage to do better than that.

A two points a game average for any of the chasing teams would give a maximum of 86 points achievable by Hull or Watford. I am confident that 87 points or 6 wins and 2 draws from our remaining games will be enough but i think that 87 point target might well reduce as the most likely 3rd place team (probably Hull) drop more points.

[Arkay DubyaGlobal Superstar]

Top statisisisising there Mr C-W!

There'll be no chicken counting in the Arkay household until they've all hatched, also, in an unrelated matter I won't say we're promoted until we actually are.

This is reassuring though and has reduced my heart rate down to only 150 bpm now

It would take Cardiff to "do a Cardiff" of all Cardiff's to stop us at least getting second BUT until that becomes an impossibility I shall still be a just a little jittery...

[Toast BoyClub Legend]

Just to add a few more stats looking at the last 10 game current form.

Cardiff 23 points - average 2.3 per game.
Watford 22 points - average 2.2 per game.
Hull 17 points - average 1.7 per game.
Palace 15 points - average 1.5 per game.
Leicester 17 points - average 1.7 per game.

If those averages stayed constant through the remaining games then points for the chasing pack at the end of the season would be roughly as follows.

Watford 89 points
Hull 83 points
Leicester 78 points
Palace 76 points

I think we all realise how achievable the points total needed is especially considering our form so far. It is only our past experiences of being a Cardiff City fan which leaves many of us not ready to quite believe - yet.

[The TonkerNational Legend]

So does all this mean we are safe from relegation?

[TDAGlobal Superstar]

I think it fair to also factor in that our points average would have been even better if the side hadn't self-destructed at Bristol, Palace and Charlton in the early part of the season.

[Arkay DubyaGlobal Superstar]

Subject to administration, yes.

[davewebber65National Legend]

bugger my daughters wedding saving plan, i gotta go to watford

[RhysGlobal Superstar]

Fantastic post - have some flair.

Despite this knowledge, my confidence on seeing the season through will depend on every game. If we win, I will feel that the league is won. If we lose, I'm convinced we will bottle it.

[TDAGlobal Superstar]

There are still a few games that top 6 still have play against each other, so Hull & Watford may slip up further there.....I posted this last Sunday

http://www.redbluebirds.com/t3709-things-are-getting-very-interesting

[Caer y GlynVice Captain]

Every team has tricky fixtures but all our rivals as well as us have to play others in the top half dozen. These include Palace v Hull, Brighton v Palace, Hull v Watford, Brighton v Leicester, Palace v Leicester, Leicester v Watford.

I think we have toughest run in but others wont relish theirs either and draws for us against Leicester, Watford and Hull will be as bad as defeats for them.

I note Forest still have to play Hull , Brighton and Leicester and reckon the Billy factor could push them into play off contention. Bad news for them.

Cautious positivity!

Watford have a great set of fixtures but then have Hull, Cardiff and Leicester in April. They are red hot now but can they sustain it?

[capt_darlingAcademy Player]

if this was any other league table and any other team in our position id say theyd stroll it , but as its us ive still got that doubt

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