14 games to play - what chance of survival?

City have 21 points after 24 games.

In all but one of the past six seasons 37 points was enough for survival (it was 40 in 2009/10), so how many could be earned in the last 14 matches?

My estimate:

Home

Villa – draw = 1
Hull – win = 3
Fulham – win = 3
Liverpool – loss = 0
Palace – draw = 1
Stoke – win = 3
Chelsea – loss = 0

Away

Swansea – draw = 1
Spurs – loss = 0
Everton – loss = 0
WBA – draw = 1
Southampton – loss = 0
Sunderland – draw = 1
Newcastle – loss = 0

Total = 14 points

Sadly, I don’t think 35 points will be enough.
 

I agree with your predictions, although I think we will draw with Newcastle and Southampton and beat West Brom, giving us 39. Possibly that could be good enough!

I think we will go a run of games winning, we will stay up

Its going to be a close run thing by looks......well at least it should be exciting!

Horrible feeling that those dropped points against Sunderland and West Ham (twice) are going to come back to haunt us......

my fears too, but also think we can do it

Your estimate looks pretty good G, but its also only two points short of that regular 'finish line'. Turn one draw into a win or a couple of losses into draws and we're suddenly there (Could also go the other way but lets not think about that.

Compare it with our rivals - Fulham look pretty screwed with games against Man United, Liverpool, West Brom, Chelsea, us, Newcastle, Man City and Everton in that order over the next two months. Thats a confidence killer if you've ever seen one.

West Ham have a nice couple of months like us, but then culminate in two months of hell - Liverpool, Arsenal, Palace, West Brom, Spurs, Man City. They need to pick up points quickly, as they'll be lucky to get more than four or five over the last two months.

West Brom are somewhat neutral, having an equal mixture of 'easy' and 'difficult' games. Their home matches are horrible though - Chelsea, Fulham, Man Utd, us, Spurs, West Ham and Stoke. They are going to be forced into picking up large amounts of points away, and they've struggled to do that so far.

Crystal Palace may have the hardest home run of all - West Brom, United, Southampton, Chelsea, Villa, Man City, Liverpool. They are looking at 6 points as a maximum, and again are relying on away form.

Compared against them, we have a nice home run in with only the two matches probably out of our league. I think many of the others around us are going to start struggling too. At this point in time I think I will be just fine.

EDIT - Things also look bleak for Norwich. They play 4 of the current top 6 in their final four games of the season, and theres horrible games everywhere else too. They could plummet.

I got interested, so I did a league predictor. Its quite long winded at the moment but its a nice confidence booster - I had Cardiff to pick up 15 points, and that got them 15th place.

1 Man City       95
2 Chelsea       93
3 Arsenal       86
4 Liverpool       79
5 Everton       71
6 Tottenham     70
7 Man Utd       67
8 Southampton  64
9 Newcastle       62
10 Hull City       39
11 West Ham      38
12 Stoke            37
13 Swansea       36
14 Sunderland     36
15 Cardiff       36
16 C Palace       33
17 Aston Villa      31
18 Norwich       30
19 West Brom     27
20 Fulham       25

If you want to try yourself  

Red614 wrote:I got interested, so I did a league predictor. Its quite long winded at the moment but its a nice confidence booster - I had Cardiff to pick up 15 points, and that got them 15th place.

1 Man City        95
2 Chelsea         93
3 Arsenal          86
4 Liverpool        79
5 Everton          71
6 Tottenham      70
7 Man Utd          67
8 Southampton  64
9 Newcastle        62
10 Hull City         39
11 West Ham      38
12 Stoke            37
13 Swansea        36
14 Sunderland     36
15 Cardiff            36
16 C Palace         33
17 Aston Villa      31
18 Norwich         30
19 West Brom     27
20 Fulham           25

If you want to try yourself  

Interesting stuff. Maybe the cutoff point will be lower than normal this season.
Provides some hope anyway.
 

Flair of G-ster and Red...........nice work chaps......  

Good work….made me feel a lot better reading your informative posts.

Yes well said by both.

Other interesting points are what impact three matches without Andy Carroll will do for West Ham, and whether Swansea will benefit from the temporary appointment of Garry Monk

That table would also leave a huge gulf between 9th and 10th position

Slumdog's Son™ wrote:That table would also leave a huge gulf between 9th and 10th position

Bizarre..........two divisions in one!

TDA wrote:

Slumdog's Son™ wrote:That table would also leave a huge gulf between 9th and 10th position

Bizarre..........two divisions in one!

Just like OGS has been saying